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Greek Deal on Monday?

Increased optimism that a Greek bailout package will be approved on Monday caused investors to shift to riskier assets, which was negative for mortgage rates. Mixed US growth and inflation data had little net impact. Mortgage rates ended the week a little higher.

After several weeks of uncertainty, it appears that European officials are close to reaching agreement on a much needed bailout package for Greece. Despite strong public opposition, Greek leaders took a big step by passing a budget with new austerity measures. Comments from euro zone leaders expressed broad support for providing additional aid, which Greece needs to avoid a default on debt maturing on March 20. Prior to this week, it appeared that the option to let Greece default and possibly leave the European Union was under serious consideration, but investors now believe that European leaders will not let this happen. An important meeting is scheduled for Monday, and investors expect a deal to be announced. In anticipation, investors shifted to riskier assets, and relatively safer assets such as mortgage-backed securities (MBS) dropped in price, pushing mortgage rates higher.

The inflation data released this week showed that core inflation rates (which exclude food and energy) have continued to rise. Core CPI inflation was 2.3% higher than one year ago, which was the highest annual rate since September 2008. Fed officials forecast that core inflation levels will moderate later in the year. If it unexpectedly continues to move higher, however, the impact could be large. Higher inflation is negative for mortgage rates. In addition, it would be more difficult for the Fed to maintain its current loose monetary policy. Investors will be closely watching core inflation levels in coming months to see if the Fed’s forecast proves correct.

Also Notable:
• January Housing Starts rose to the highest level since October 2008
• Weekly Jobless Claims fell to the lowest level since March 2008
• The Dow stock index climbed to multi-year highs
• The Treasury will auction $99 billion in 2-yr, 5-yr, and 7-yr securities next week

Average 30 yr fixed rate:
Last week: -0.01%
This week: +0.05%

Stocks (weekly):
Dow: 12,900 +150
NASDAQ: 2,950 +50

Week Ahead
Monday’s meeting between Greek and euro zone officials will be the most highly anticipated economic event next week. Investors expect that a deal will be reached to provide additional aid to Greece. It will be a light week for US economic data. Existing Home Sales will be released on Wednesday. New Home Sales and Consumer Sentiment will come out on Friday. In addition, there will be Treasury auctions on Tuesday, Wednesday, and Thursday. Mortgage markets will be closed on Monday in observance of Presidents Day.

Roger is an owner and licensed Loan Officer at Blue Water Mortgage. He graduated from the University of New Hampshire’s Whittemore School of Business and has been a leader in the mortgage industry for over 20 years. Roger has personally originated over 2500 residential loans and is considered to be in the top 1% of NH Loan Officers by leading national lender United Wholesale Mortgage.