Markets React to Fiscal Cliff Talks

If no action is taken, a series of tax increases and government spending cuts will take effect at the first of the year, known as the fiscal cliff. During the week, political leaders from both parties made a series of statements about the changing status of negotiations to avoid the fiscal cliff. The result for financial markets was increased daily volatility in the stock and bond markets. Opinions vary widely on the level of progress, but investors ended the week with reduced optimism for a deal. As long as the talks drag on, the increased level of volatility is likely to continue.

If Congress is not able to reach a deal to avoid the fiscal cliff, economic growth can be expected to slow significantly. However, slower economic growth generally reduces inflationary pressures and is positive for mortgage rates. Therefore, as optimism for a deal rises and falls, so do mortgage rates.

Week Ahead 

The biggest US economic report next week will be the important Employment data on Friday. As usual, this data on the number of jobs, the Unemployment Rate, and wage inflation will be the most highly anticipated economic data of the month. Before the employment data, ISM Manufacturing, and Construction Spending will be released on Monday. Productivity and ISM Services will come out on Wednesday. Consumer Sentiment is also scheduled for Friday.