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Mortgage Rates Improve on Debt Warning

With little economic data, it was a relatively quiet week for mortgage rates. The biggest economic news was a surprise warning from a major rating agency that it may downgrade US debt, but investors viewed this as positive for bonds. As a result, mortgage rates ended the week a little lower.

a graph of the housing starts from April 2008 to 2011

On Monday, S&P unexpectedly announced that it had lowered its outlook for US debt due to growing budget deficits. Basically, this means that S&P sees a higher risk that they will need to downgrade the credit rating for US debt over the next couple of years. A lower credit rating would increase the yield required by all investors to purchase US debt to offset the higher perceived risk. In addition, some investors are not permitted to own lower rated debt, and the selling from these investors would add further upward pressure to yields.

In recent months, similar warnings pushed yields higher in smaller European countries such as Greece and Portugal. The immediate reaction to Monday’s S&P announcement was a rise in US bond yields as well, but yields soon moved lower as lawmakers began to use the news to support their plans for deficit reduction. Investors expect that the threat of a lower debt rating will make it easier for politicians to make difficult cuts in government spending. In short, what would normally be bad news for mortgage rates actually helped them improve.

Also Notable:
• March Existing Home Sales rose 4% from February
• Inflation in China rose to a 32-month high
• Gold prices reached a record high above $1,500 per ounce
• The Treasury will auction $99 billion in 2-yr, 5-yr, and 7-yr securities next week

Average 30 yr fixed rate:
Last week: -0.10%
This week: -0.02%
Stocks (weekly):
Dow: 12,500 +200
NASDAQ: 2,820 +70

Week Ahead The biggest economic event next week will be Wednesday’s Fed meeting. For the first time, the Fed Chief will hold a press conference after the meeting to discuss the Fed’s announcement. No change in rates is expected, but investors will be looking for hints about when the Fed will begin to tighten monetary policy. The most significant economic report next week will be GDP on Thursday. GDP is the broadest measure of economic growth. Before that, New Home Sales will be released on Monday. Durable Orders, another important indicator of economic growth, will come out on Wednesday. Pending Home Sales, a leading indicator, will be released on Thursday. Chicago PMI, Personal Income and Core PCE inflation will come out on Friday. Consumer Confidence and Consumer Sentiment will round out the busy schedule. In addition, there will be Treasury auctions on Tuesday, Wednesday, and Thursday.

Events This Week:
Existing Sales Rose
Housing Starts Up
Jobless Claims Fell
Manufacturing Down
Events Next Week:
Mon 4/25
New Home Sales
Wed 4/27
Fed Meeting
Durable Orders
Thur 4/28
Pending Sales
Fri 4/29
Core PCE
Chicago PMI

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Roger Odoardi

Roger is an owner and licensed Loan Officer at Blue Water Mortgage. He graduated from the University of New Hampshire’s Whittemore School of Business and has been a leader in the mortgage industry for over 20 years. Roger has personally originated over 2500 residential loans and is considered to be in the top 1% of NH Loan Officers by leading national lender United Wholesale Mortgage.