No Surprises from Bernanke

It was another volatile week for mortgage rates. The primary factors influencing rates roughly offset each other, though, and mortgage rates ended the week just a little higher.

A wide range of economic news caused investors to either add or reduce risk at a rapid pace this week. News which generally encouraged increased exposure to risky assets helped stocks and hurt mortgage rates early in the week, while the opposite took place later in the week. Mixed US economic data, continued concerns about European debt, a highly anticipated speech from Fed Chief Bernanke, and uncertainty about the impact of Hurricane Irene all contributed to the daily volatility.

In Friday’s speech, Fed Chief Bernanke gave no hint of any change in Fed policy, disappointing some investors hoping for looser monetary conditions. He stated that at its September meeting the Fed will consider whether additional monetary stimulus measures are called for, but that fiscal policy changes by lawmakers are needed to help the economy and the labor market. Following the speech, the consensus view is that the Fed is unlikely to make significant policy changes for a while.

•Second quarter GDP was revised lower from 1.3% to 1.0%

•Continuing Jobless Claims fell to the lowest level since September 2008

•Moody’s downgraded the credit rating of Japan’s government debt

•The Fed’s Hoenig said that he doesn’t expect a double-dip recession in the US

Average 30 yr fixed rate:

Last week: -0.10%

This week: +0.02%

Stocks (weekly):

Dow: 11,300 +300

NASDAQ: 2,475 +75

The biggest economic report next week will be the important Employment data on Friday. As usual, this data on the number of jobs, the Unemployment Rate, and wage inflation will be the most highly anticipated economic data of the month. Before the employment data, Pending Home Sales, Core PCE inflation, and Personal Income will be released on Monday. Chicago PMI Manufacturing and ADP Employment will come out on Wednesday. ISM Manufacturing, Construction Spending, and Productivity are scheduled for Thursday. Factory Orders and Consumer Confidence will round out a busy week.